I was very fortunate to be invited to attend the 8th Annual Economic Outlook Conference yesterday (Tuesday) at UNC Wilmington where local economic experts and business leaders made their predictions and discussed their opinions on the outlook of our local economy as well as the state and nation. 

Dr. Woody Hall and Dr. Thomas Simpson shared some interesting statistics including the fact that our economic growth rate (in the Wilmington area) was 2.1% in 2010 and predicted to be 2.4% in 2011 and 2.2% in 2012.  According to Dr. Hall, a growth rate of about 3% is needed to stabilize unemployment, which in our area is still substantially higher than it was a year ago.  Being the ever optimist that I am, I'm choosing to view this stat as the glass being "half full" instead of "half empty."  An important thing to note here is "GROWTH."  We may not be getting out of this mess at lightning speed, but we are making headway.  Growth is growth no matter how you look at it and I choose to see it as a positive trend.  At any rate, it's better than the alternative, right?

Retail sales are also up 13.1% in New Hanover Co. (through June 30th) .  I think that's a pretty impressive number.  Dr. Hall  and Dr. Simpson noted that the housing market does seem to be showing signs of increasing stability but there is still a significant inventory of homes on the market as well a large "shadow inventory" looming.  Shadow inventory is inventory that will eventually make it's way to the market like bank foreclosures that have not been released from the banks and other sellers that are not ready to put their home on the market yet, but will have to eventually.  Dr. Simpson also noted that large Corporations are sitting on tons of cash and businesses in general, are being extremly cautious about investing.  Once consumer confidence increases and small businesses have easier access to financing, I think you'll see a turn for the better in our economy.  The hope is that that happens sooner rather than later.

One thing you didn't read in the paper is what Dr. Hall and Dr. Simpson said about consumer debt....IT'S DOWN!  Little was made of this comment, but I thought it was HUGE!  Could it be that we as a nation have actually learned a lesson from the economic downturn over the past 5 years?  Yes, I think we have.  Consumer debt is lower which means households are actually getting their finances in order and not (for the most part) spending money that they don't have.  When we dig out of this mess, and we will, we'll all be better off because we will have gotten our debt and spending habits under control and (hopefully) not be spending money we don't have.  It's really common sense, isn't it?

Another local business leader, David Swain made some interesting comments that I think are worth mentioning.  He noted 5 Important Questions to ask During a Recession:

1. How could I have better prepared myself?

2. Did I see the signs?

3. How long is this recession going to last?

4. How do I survive?  You can't just take a protective stance but must keep moving forward.

5. What are the opportunities?  They are there!

Millionaires were made during all of the recessions and this one is no different.  Make lemonade out of the lemons that are thrown at you...it'll taste a lot sweeter. 

There is no doubt we are all facing difficult economic times now and probably for the forseeable future.  I wasn't on the real estate panel, but if I were asked what my prediction was for our local real estate market, I'd say that our market will probably continue to stabilize for the next few years (albeit at a slow pace).  Once we do start seeing prices increase, I think it will be at a very conservative pace.  The days of crazy appreciation are OVER!

I think it's important in these times to not only be prepared but be proactive.  Seek out the opportunities that are before you no matter what they are.  Keep a positive attitude.  Remember, whether you believe you'll succeed or believe you'll fail.....you'll be right.  I choose to succeed, please join me!

I welcome comments and questions.  Call or email anytime at melaniecameron@seacoastrealty.com or 910-202-2546.